{"authors":[{"id":"orcid_______::5cae86c6a6cf281e52a2dbf01800d49a","fullName":"Lars Lorch","name":null,"surname":null,"rank":1,"pid":{"id":{"scheme":"orcid","value":"0000-0001-7465-5892"},"provenance":null}},{"id":null,"fullName":"Heiner Kremer","name":null,"surname":null,"rank":2,"pid":{"id":{"scheme":"orcid_pending","value":"0000-0002-2275-6672"},"provenance":null}},{"id":"orcid_______::27d2b681c54d6462eea73894e4398c2a","fullName":"William Trouleau","name":null,"surname":null,"rank":3,"pid":{"id":{"scheme":"orcid","value":"0000-0003-1734-5585"},"provenance":null}},{"id":"orcid_______::876faa5d2686643ae47ddb5c7a8d2003","fullName":"Stratis Tsirtsis","name":null,"surname":null,"rank":4,"pid":{"id":{"scheme":"orcid","value":"0000-0001-6912-3250"},"provenance":null}},{"id":null,"fullName":"Aron Szanto","name":null,"surname":null,"rank":5,"pid":{"id":{"scheme":"orcid_pending","value":"0000-0003-0843-2011"},"provenance":null}},{"id":"orcid_______::90fc413b5449c822407ff1fd6b5a118f","fullName":"Bernhard Schölkopf","name":null,"surname":null,"rank":6,"pid":{"id":{"scheme":"orcid","value":"0000-0002-8177-0925"},"provenance":null}},{"id":"orcid_______::0f8f387592b85415ff28f2701f4a57c2","fullName":"Manuel Gomez-Rodriguez","name":null,"surname":null,"rank":7,"pid":{"id":{"scheme":"orcid","value":"0000-0003-3930-1161"},"provenance":null}}],"openAccessColor":"hybrid","publiclyFunded":false,"eoscIfGuidelines":null,"type":"publication","language":{"code":"eng","label":"English"},"countries":[{"code":"CH","label":"Switzerland","provenance":null}],"subjects":[{"subject":{"scheme":"FOS","value":"0301 basic medicine"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"FOS: Computer and information sciences"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Computer Science - Machine Learning"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Physics - Physics and Society"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"FOS: Physical sciences"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Machine Learning (stat.ML)"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph)"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Physics and Society"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"epidemics"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Machine Learning (cs.LG)"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Machine Learning"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"FOS","value":"03 medical and health sciences"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Statistics - Machine Learning"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"distributed processes on graphs"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Social and Information Networks (cs.SI)"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"overdispersion"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Populations and Evolution (q-bio.PE)"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"COVID-19"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Computer Science - Social and Information Networks"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"epidemiology; overdispersion; temporal point processes; COVID-19"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"SDG","value":"3. Good health"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Populations and Evolution"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"FOS: Biological sciences"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"epidemiology"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"Social and Information Networks"},"provenance":null},{"subject":{"scheme":"keyword","value":"temporal point processes"},"provenance":null}],"mainTitle":"Quantifying the Effects of Contact Tracing, Testing, and Containment Measures in the Presence of Infection Hotspots","subTitle":null,"descriptions":["<jats:p>Multiple lines of evidence strongly suggest that infection hotspots, where a single individual infects many others, play a key role in the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, most of the existing epidemiological models fail to capture this aspect by neither representing the sites visited by individuals explicitly nor characterizing disease transmission as a function of individual mobility patterns. In this work, we introduce a temporal point process modeling framework that specifically represents visits to the sites where individuals get in contact and infect each other. Under our model, the number of infections caused by an infectious individual naturally emerges to be overdispersed. Using an efficient sampling algorithm, we demonstrate how to estimate the transmission rate of infectious individuals at the sites they visit and in their households using Bayesian optimization (BO) and longitudinal case data. Simulations using fine-grained and publicly available demographic data and site locations from Bern, Switzerland showcase the flexibility of our framework. To facilitate research and analyses of other cities and regions, we release an open-source implementation of our framework.</jats:p>"],"publicationDate":"2022-11-02","publisher":"Association for Computing Machinery (ACM)","embargoEndDate":"2022-12-01","sources":["Crossref","ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems","ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and System","ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems, 8 (4)"],"formats":["application/pdf","application/application/pdf"],"contributors":null,"coverages":null,"bestAccessRight":{"code":"c_abf2","label":"OPEN","scheme":"http://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/documentation/access_rights/"},"container":{"name":"ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems","issnPrinted":"2374-0353","issnOnline":"2374-0361","issnLinking":null,"ep":"28","iss":null,"sp":"1","vol":"8","edition":null,"conferencePlace":null,"conferenceDate":null},"documentationUrls":null,"codeRepositoryUrl":null,"programmingLanguage":null,"contactPeople":null,"contactGroups":null,"tools":null,"size":null,"version":null,"geoLocations":null,"id":"doi_dedup___::5fb9ce1f5ea67e24237b06988593adca","originalIds":["10.1145/3530774","50|doiboost____|5fb9ce1f5ea67e24237b06988593adca","50|datacite____::48ad12fbb9189eff0e1785b5f8975891","10.3929/ethz-b-000588971","50|datacite____::f47592bcab36dc5ebc74cbd5a28e5e05","10.48550/arxiv.2004.07641","oai:arXiv.org:2004.07641","50|od________18::49c005d02dff5da3b2bb2ff9637a539e","50|dblp________::7914fc434551661390b1ae875c1c72e3","oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3339466","50|od______1874::6e00ba3bca9e2930287814f5252ebe50","50|od______1874::aa1d30d226c45dd7e86239dec35c257b","oai:pure.mpg.de:item_3519966","oai:www.research-collection.ethz.ch:20.500.11850/588971","50|od_______150::c48cb59f12764ca13c3cfab14db5c56b","oai:infoscience.epfl.ch:277074","50|od_______185::fb121a1ef2f48f0517c80835f05db5a4"],"pids":[{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.1145/3530774"},{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.3929/ethz-b-000588971"},{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.48550/arxiv.2004.07641"},{"scheme":"arXiv","value":"2004.07641"},{"scheme":"handle","value":"21.11116/0000-0009-1D1B-A"},{"scheme":"handle","value":"21.11116/0000-000D-5713-C"},{"scheme":"handle","value":"21.11116/0000-0009-1D1D-8"},{"scheme":"handle","value":"21.11116/0000-000F-DFDB-0"},{"scheme":"handle","value":"20.500.11850/588971"},{"scheme":"handle","value":"20.500.14299/168236"}],"dateOfCollection":null,"lastUpdateTimeStamp":null,"indicators":{"citationImpact":{"citationCount":10.0,"influence":2.4882332E-9,"popularity":7.98201E-9,"impulse":10.0,"citationClass":"C4","influenceClass":"C5","impulseClass":"C4","popularityClass":"C4"}},"projects":[{"id":"corda__h2020::83d6aa753c4b6e94582f4ef733616892","code":"945719","acronym":"HumanML","title":"Human-Centric Machine Learning","funder":"European Commission","pids":[{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.3030/945719"}]}],"organizations":[{"legalName":"Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research","acronym":"MPS","id":"openorgs____::aba86c98674c776e735458b074d4d711","pids":[{"scheme":"wikidata","value":"Q470648"},{"scheme":"GRID","value":"grid.435826.e"},{"scheme":"ROR","value":"https://ror.org/02j6gm739"},{"scheme":"OrgRef","value":"5743888"},{"scheme":"Wikidata","value":"Q470648"},{"scheme":"ISNI","value":"0000000122849011"}],"countries":[{"code":"DE","label":"Germany"}],"websiteurl":"http://www.mps.mpg.de/en"},{"legalName":"Ecole Polytechnique Fédéral de Lausanne","acronym":"EPFL","id":"pending_org_::35fa9351f07bad345804c7df745a3742","pids":[{"scheme":"OrgReg","value":"CH0011"}],"countries":[{"code":"AE","label":"United Arab Emirates"}],"websiteurl":"https://www.epfl.ch"},{"legalName":"Max Planck Society","acronym":"MPG","id":"openorgs____::5a405a89387d1881afa956f475994e10","pids":[{"scheme":"ISNI","value":"0000000121051091"},{"scheme":"ROR","value":"https://ror.org/01hhn8329"},{"scheme":"GRID","value":"grid.4372.2"},{"scheme":"PIC","value":"999990267"},{"scheme":"RRID","value":"RRID:nlx_55250"},{"scheme":"FundRef","value":"501100004189"},{"scheme":"RRID","value":"RRID:SCR_011366"},{"scheme":"Wikidata","value":"Q158085"},{"scheme":"OrgRef","value":"614753"},{"scheme":"mag_id","value":"149899117"},{"scheme":"wikidata","value":"Q158085"},{"scheme":"fundref","value":"501100004189"}],"countries":[{"code":"DE","label":"Germany"}],"websiteurl":"http://www.mpg.de/en"},{"legalName":"Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausane","acronym":"Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausane","id":"pending_org_::34e0fa19482b9958f497e7149ff09e8f","pids":null,"countries":[{"code":"CH","label":"Switzerland"}],"websiteurl":null},{"legalName":"École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne EPFL","acronym":"EPFL","id":"openorgs____::a9607f7a6966af7cc6fa87bf4ab44952","pids":[{"scheme":"RRID","value":"RRID:SCR_000961"},{"scheme":"RRID","value":"RRID:nlx_151927"},{"scheme":"GRID","value":"grid.5333.6"},{"scheme":"mag_id","value":"5124864"},{"scheme":"fundref","value":"501100001703"},{"scheme":"wikidata","value":"Q262760"},{"scheme":"fundref","value":"501100001709"},{"scheme":"FundRef","value":"501100001709"},{"scheme":"Wikidata","value":"Q262760"},{"scheme":"OrgRef","value":"71968"},{"scheme":"ISNI","value":"0000000121839049"},{"scheme":"PIC","value":"999973971"},{"scheme":"FundRef","value":"501100001703"},{"scheme":"ROR","value":"https://ror.org/02s376052"},{"scheme":"RRID","value":"RRID:SCR_018245"}],"countries":[{"code":"CH","label":"Switzerland"}],"websiteurl":"http://www.epfl.ch/index.en.html"},{"legalName":"École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne","acronym":"École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne","id":"pending_org_::2581c612d89ae41795ca5878f284a7d1","pids":null,"countries":[{"code":"UNKNOWN","label":"Unknown"}],"websiteurl":null},{"legalName":"EIDGENOESSISCHE TECHNISCHE HOCHSCHULE ZUERICH","acronym":"ETH Zürich","id":"pending_org_::ee523ac5b92735484e281cd08b3b82f4","pids":[{"scheme":"PIC","value":"999979015"}],"countries":[{"code":"CH","label":"Switzerland"}],"websiteurl":"http://www.ethz.ch"},{"legalName":"ECOLE POLYTECHNIQUE FEDERALE DE LAUSANNE","acronym":"ECOLE POLYTECHNIQUE FEDERALE DE LAUSANNE","id":"pending_org_::0692e92765ab8f2fe8aa2ed745a79b68","pids":null,"countries":[{"code":"UNKNOWN","label":"Unknown"}],"websiteurl":null},{"legalName":"Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems","acronym":"MPI-IS","id":"openorgs____::484b4de545a98970c6304b86c6956f4b","pids":[{"scheme":"ROR","value":"https://ror.org/04fq9j139"},{"scheme":"wikidata","value":"Q1287942"},{"scheme":"GRID","value":"grid.419534.e"},{"scheme":"OrgRef","value":"10477652"},{"scheme":"ISNI","value":"0000000110156533"},{"scheme":"Wikidata","value":"Q1287942"}],"countries":[{"code":"DE","label":"Germany"}],"websiteurl":"http://www.is.mpg.de/en"},{"legalName":"ETH Zurich","acronym":"ETHZ","id":"openorgs____::fb1e14f93f04d43e1a10a9f17d12c669","pids":[{"scheme":"wikidata","value":"Q11942"},{"scheme":"FundRef","value":"501100003070"},{"scheme":"OrgRef","value":"210910"},{"scheme":"ROR","value":"https://ror.org/05a28rw58"},{"scheme":"fundref","value":"501100003006"},{"scheme":"FundRef","value":"501100003006"},{"scheme":"FundRef","value":"501100001710"},{"scheme":"fundref","value":"501100001710"},{"scheme":"GRID","value":"grid.5801.c"},{"scheme":"PIC","value":"999979015"},{"scheme":"Wikidata","value":"Q11942"},{"scheme":"fundref","value":"501100003070"},{"scheme":"mag_id","value":"35440088"},{"scheme":"OrgReg","value":"CH0012"},{"scheme":"RRID","value":"RRID:SCR_000962"},{"scheme":"RRID","value":"RRID:nlx_143698"},{"scheme":"ISNI","value":"0000000121562780"}],"countries":[{"code":"CH","label":"Switzerland"}],"websiteurl":"https://www.ethz.ch/en.html"},{"legalName":"Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems","acronym":"Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems","id":"pending_org_::5f73f21048e4379fc8db6a76d4342eee","pids":null,"countries":[{"code":"UNKNOWN","label":"Unknown"}],"websiteurl":null},{"legalName":"Max Planck Institute for Software Systems","acronym":"MPI-SWS","id":"openorgs____::a6be3b23fdb0e61554b444ec8c1e8d1c","pids":[{"scheme":"Wikidata","value":"Q881238"},{"scheme":"GRID","value":"grid.469860.5"},{"scheme":"ISNI","value":"000000040492020X"},{"scheme":"ROR","value":"https://ror.org/02pe2kf23"},{"scheme":"wikidata","value":"Q881238"}],"countries":[{"code":"DE","label":"Germany"}],"websiteurl":"https://www.mpi-sws.org/index.php"}],"communities":[{"code":"covid-19","label":"Corona Virus Disease","provenance":null}],"collectedFrom":[{"key":"openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254","value":"Datacite"},{"key":"opendoar____::958adb57686c2fdec5796398de5f317a","value":"MPG.PuRe"},{"key":"openaire____::081b82f96300b6a6e3d282bad31cb6e2","value":"Crossref"},{"key":"opendoar____::7ef605fc8dba5425d6965fbd4c8fbe1f","value":"Research Collection"},{"key":"openaire____::d8b68cc0a53121f6f896883a7d60c1db","value":"DBLP"},{"key":"opendoar____::6f4922f45568161a8cdf4ad2299f6d23","value":"arXiv.org e-Print Archive"},{"key":"opendoar____::eecca5b6365d9607ee5a9d336962c534","value":"Infoscience - EPFL institutional repository"}],"instances":[{"pids":[{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.1145/3530774"}],"license":"CC BY","accessRight":{"code":"c_abf2","label":"OPEN","scheme":"http://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/documentation/access_rights/","openAccessRoute":"hybrid"},"type":"Article","urls":["https://doi.org/10.1145/3530774"],"publicationDate":"2022-11-02","refereed":"peerReviewed","hostedBy":{"key":"issn___print::d3c1f64d493604d171996b1f27015e50","value":"ACM Transactions on Spatial Algorithms and Systems"},"collectedFrom":{"key":"openaire____::081b82f96300b6a6e3d282bad31cb6e2","value":"Crossref"}},{"pids":[{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.3929/ethz-b-000588971"}],"type":"Article","urls":["https://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000588971"],"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","refereed":"nonPeerReviewed","hostedBy":{"key":"re3data_____::8ac60f4c88018b79a528ceb336266c6b","value":"ETH Zürich Research Collection"},"collectedFrom":{"key":"openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254","value":"Datacite"}},{"pids":[{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.48550/arxiv.2004.07641"}],"license":"arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution","type":"Article","urls":["https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/arxiv.2004.07641"],"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","refereed":"nonPeerReviewed","hostedBy":{"key":"openaire____::55045bd2a65019fd8e6741a755395c8c","value":"Unknown Repository"},"collectedFrom":{"key":"openaire____::9e3be59865b2c1c335d32dae2fe7b254","value":"Datacite"}},{"pids":[{"scheme":"arXiv","value":"2004.07641"}],"accessRight":{"code":"c_abf2","label":"OPEN","scheme":"http://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/documentation/access_rights/","openAccessRoute":null},"type":"Preprint","urls":["http://arxiv.org/abs/2004.07641"],"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","refereed":"nonPeerReviewed","hostedBy":{"key":"opendoar____::6f4922f45568161a8cdf4ad2299f6d23","value":"arXiv.org e-Print Archive"},"collectedFrom":{"key":"opendoar____::6f4922f45568161a8cdf4ad2299f6d23","value":"arXiv.org e-Print Archive"}},{"alternateIdentifiers":[{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.1145/3530774"}],"type":"Article","urls":["https://dblp.org/rec/journals/tsas/LorchKTTSSG22.html","https://doi.org/10.1145/3530774"],"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","refereed":"nonPeerReviewed","hostedBy":{"key":"openaire____::d8b68cc0a53121f6f896883a7d60c1db","value":"DBLP"},"collectedFrom":{"key":"openaire____::d8b68cc0a53121f6f896883a7d60c1db","value":"DBLP"}},{"pids":[{"scheme":"handle","value":"21.11116/0000-0009-1D1B-A"},{"scheme":"handle","value":"21.11116/0000-000D-5713-C"},{"scheme":"handle","value":"21.11116/0000-0009-1D1D-8"}],"alternateIdentifiers":[{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.1145/3530774"}],"accessRight":{"code":"c_abf2","label":"OPEN","scheme":"http://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/documentation/access_rights/","openAccessRoute":null},"type":"Article","urls":["https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0009-1D1D-8","https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000D-5713-C","https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-0009-1D1B-A"],"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","refereed":"nonPeerReviewed","hostedBy":{"key":"opendoar____::958adb57686c2fdec5796398de5f317a","value":"MPG.PuRe"},"collectedFrom":{"key":"opendoar____::958adb57686c2fdec5796398de5f317a","value":"MPG.PuRe"}},{"pids":[{"scheme":"handle","value":"21.11116/0000-000F-DFDB-0"}],"alternateIdentifiers":[{"scheme":"arXiv","value":"2004.07641"},{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.1145/3530774"}],"type":"Article","urls":["https://hdl.handle.net/21.11116/0000-000F-DFDB-0"],"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","refereed":"nonPeerReviewed","hostedBy":{"key":"opendoar____::958adb57686c2fdec5796398de5f317a","value":"MPG.PuRe"},"collectedFrom":{"key":"opendoar____::958adb57686c2fdec5796398de5f317a","value":"MPG.PuRe"}},{"pids":[{"scheme":"handle","value":"20.500.11850/588971"}],"alternateIdentifiers":[{"scheme":"doi","value":"10.1145/3530774"}],"license":"CC BY","accessRight":{"code":"c_abf2","label":"OPEN","scheme":"http://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/documentation/access_rights/","openAccessRoute":null},"type":"Article","urls":["http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/588971"],"publicationDate":"2022-12-01","refereed":"nonPeerReviewed","hostedBy":{"key":"opendoar____::7ef605fc8dba5425d6965fbd4c8fbe1f","value":"Research Collection"},"collectedFrom":{"key":"opendoar____::7ef605fc8dba5425d6965fbd4c8fbe1f","value":"Research Collection"}},{"pids":[{"scheme":"handle","value":"20.500.14299/168236"}],"accessRight":{"code":"c_14cb","label":"CLOSED","scheme":"http://vocabularies.coar-repositories.org/documentation/access_rights/","openAccessRoute":null},"type":"Research","urls":["https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14299/168236"],"publicationDate":"2020-04-15","refereed":"nonPeerReviewed","hostedBy":{"key":"opendoar____::eecca5b6365d9607ee5a9d336962c534","value":"Infoscience - EPFL institutional repository"},"collectedFrom":{"key":"opendoar____::eecca5b6365d9607ee5a9d336962c534","value":"Infoscience - EPFL institutional repository"}}],"links":[{"header":{"relationType":"resultProject","relationClass":"isProducedBy","relatedIdentifier":"corda__h2020::83d6aa753c4b6e94582f4ef733616892","relatedRecordType":"project","relationProvenance":"sysimport:crosswalk:repository","trust":"0.9"},"collectedfrom":[{"dsId":"openaire____::a55eb91348674d853191f4f4fd73d078","dsName":"CORDA - COmmon Research DAta Warehouse - Horizon 2020"}],"projectTitle":"Human-Centric Machine Learning","code":"945719","funding":{"funder":{"id":"ec__________::EC","shortname":"EC","name":"European Commission","jurisdiction":{"code":"EU","label":"European Union"},"pid":null},"level0":{"id":"ec__________::EC::H2020","description":"Horizon 2020 Framework Programme","name":"H2020"},"level1":{"id":"ec__________::EC::H2020::ERC","description":"European Research Council","name":"ERC"},"level2":{"id":"ec__________::EC::H2020::ERC::ERC-STG","description":"Starting Grant","name":"ERC-STG"}},"startDate":"2020-11-01","endDate":"2025-10-31"}],"otherTitles":null,"green":true,"inDiamondJournal":false,"isGreen":true,"isInDiamondJournal":false}